ELECTRIC.IE • The Magazine & Website for the Irish Electrical Industry • 59 I nLdE Du sVt Ar yNNC eE w s New EirGrid analysis examines the balance between electricity demand and supply in Ireland over 10 years EirGrid, which is responsible for balancing electricity supply and demand every minute of the day from the National Control Centre, while also strategically planning for Ireland’s long-term electricity needs, has released its annual All-Island Resource Adequacy Assessment, which looks at the balance between electricity demand and supply in Ireland over 10 years. The assessment looks at demand (what Ireland needs), generation (what can supply the demand) and adequacy (the potential gap between the two). Since 2016, EirGrid has warned of an increasing tightness between supply and demand. In this context, the objective of the report is to allow industry, government, regulators and other stakeholders to facilitate the transition to renewable energy, supporting social and economic growth into the future, meeting future demand, while ensuring the secure and resilient operation of the electricity system. Each year, EirGrid ‘freeze’ the data on which the calculations are measured, to ensure an accurate assessment is provided. The freeze date for demand data for this report was 30 June 2025. Demand (what Ireland needs) Predicting future electricity demand is a complex task. EirGrid looks at a range of scenarios so that it can understand the possible outcomes depending on a range of influential factors. These variables include aspects such as temperature, the economy, contracted large energy user growth, energy efficiency as well as the electrification of heat and transport. These inform the three demand scenarios for Ireland which are median demand, low demand and high demand. The median secure demand scenario is EirGrid’s best estimate of what might happen in the future. Looking out to 2030 and beyond, the median scenario shows that electricity demand is set to continue to increase as consumers use electricity in new ways, with slower but sustained growth then out to 2035. Government policies are expected to help guide us away from fossil fuels toward alternative heating methods, such as electric heat pumps, and cleaner modes of transport, such as electric vehicles. Generation (what can supply this demand) Over the next 10 years, the sources of electricity supply will continue to change as the country transitions to a predominantly renewable power system. EirGrid expects new generation capacity will be delivered through the SEM capacity auctions and additional renewable capacity will be introduced through the Renewable Energy Support Scheme (RESS) and Offshore RESS auctions. Adequacy (gap between demand and generation) In the report, adequacy is assessed against a standard called the ‘Reliability Standard’. This standard is set by the Department of Climate, Energy and the Environment (DCEE) working with our regulator, the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU). The Reliability Standard is expressed using Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE), which is the number of hours per year that a country’s electricity production is not expected to meet its demand. It is important to note that the LOLE measurement does not necessarily mean that electricity consumers will be without supply for any period. The output from this assessment is a forecast of LOLE and an indication of whether or not the system requires additional capacity to operate securely. The Reliability Standard for Ireland is three hours LOLE. The report also presents different scenarios when assessing adequacy, looking at two different scenarios, one based on normal operating conditions (base scenario) and one factoring in more challenging conditions (secure scenario). EirGrid considers the secure assessment is most prudent and should be considered as the central scenario for adequacy assessments, noting that capacity market auctions will procure new capacity if required to address capacity shortfalls in the medium to long term. According to the report: • From 2026 to 2028, both assessments (base and secure) show the system is outside of the Reliability Standard of 3 hours, meaning additional capacity is required. • From 2029, the base assessment is within the Reliability Standard, meaning there is sufficient capacity to operate the system under normal conditions. The secure (more challenging) assessment, however, remains outside of standard indicating around 200 MW is required increasing to over 400 MW in 2034 to ensure we can continue to balance supply and demand under more challenging conditions. more.. www.eirgrid.ie/news
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